* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 43 45 43 42 41 44 39 33 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 43 45 43 42 41 42 37 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 28 29 29 28 27 28 32 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 26 11 15 22 22 22 14 13 15 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 3 1 -3 -5 -8 -2 0 -2 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 323 295 323 349 340 11 22 1 244 240 290 321 349 SST (C) 27.2 26.9 27.0 27.2 26.7 25.8 26.7 21.7 12.3 8.1 8.0 14.8 18.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 124 124 127 121 113 123 88 70 68 69 74 81 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 107 106 108 103 98 106 78 68 67 68 71 76 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.4 -54.7 -55.4 -55.7 -56.2 -56.9 -57.2 -57.7 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 6 6 6 4 1 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 55 51 48 46 50 52 58 60 56 57 59 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 6 8 10 12 11 6 6 5 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR -25 7 30 46 48 34 -4 20 -5 -65 -88 -96 -80 200 MB DIV 38 41 5 24 33 0 22 18 7 -7 -6 -18 -26 700-850 TADV 9 7 6 8 11 16 -5 -1 5 0 18 25 7 LAND (KM) 607 585 630 690 778 819 606 330 148 10 449 1074 1627 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 32.3 32.9 33.5 34.0 35.4 38.2 41.3 44.4 47.4 49.0 48.0 44.9 LONG(DEG W) 71.6 70.8 69.8 68.8 67.6 65.5 63.8 62.8 59.7 54.4 46.9 38.4 32.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 11 10 14 17 17 22 25 28 28 26 HEAT CONTENT 7 5 2 1 2 2 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 14 CX,CY: 5/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 890 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 0. -2. -3. -1. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 20. 18. 17. 17. 19. 14. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 31.2 71.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.76 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.46 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 9.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 33 37 43 45 43 42 41 42 37 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 34 40 42 40 39 38 39 34 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 35 37 35 34 33 34 29 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 25 27 25 24 23 24 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT