* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 47 51 52 52 52 50 55 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 37 42 47 51 52 52 52 50 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 38 40 42 45 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 13 14 10 24 20 29 24 20 19 17 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -5 1 -2 -5 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 77 59 23 19 356 327 340 330 341 338 357 347 261 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.4 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.0 27.9 26.9 26.0 26.3 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 142 131 130 130 133 135 135 124 116 120 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 125 113 110 109 112 115 117 108 102 106 96 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.6 -56.0 -56.1 -56.9 -57.0 -57.2 -57.3 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 4 700-500 MB RH 50 48 44 47 50 48 51 49 51 51 57 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -82 -85 -100 -86 -46 -9 24 21 -3 -24 -16 3 -15 200 MB DIV 11 25 -1 16 34 5 40 -3 13 -2 30 22 8 700-850 TADV 14 12 16 12 10 4 7 5 9 14 6 5 4 LAND (KM) 502 619 614 656 716 758 822 885 960 1063 1119 877 586 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.4 27.4 28.3 28.8 29.2 29.2 29.3 30.0 31.3 33.3 36.3 40.2 LONG(DEG W) 73.8 73.9 73.9 73.6 73.1 71.9 70.8 69.7 67.9 65.6 63.4 61.3 58.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 8 6 5 5 7 10 12 15 19 23 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 22 18 18 13 11 12 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 13 CX,CY: -1/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 22. 26. 27. 27. 27. 25. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 25.2 73.8 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 19.1% 15.8% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.9% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 18.5% 13.4% 5.8% 2.3% 5.9% 3.0% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.9% 6.0% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 14.5% 10.6% 5.6% 0.8% 2.1% 4.0% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 31 34 37 42 47 51 52 52 52 50 55 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 38 43 47 48 48 48 46 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 32 37 41 42 42 42 40 45 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 23 28 32 33 33 33 31 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT