* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 62 68 69 68 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 62 68 69 68 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 45 51 53 54 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 7 9 6 10 15 26 23 28 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -6 -7 0 -1 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 314 72 88 46 52 355 330 342 339 351 332 323 331 SST (C) 28.5 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.6 27.8 27.0 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 150 151 149 149 134 135 137 137 145 135 126 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 134 130 128 113 113 114 117 126 119 112 109 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.3 -55.3 -55.7 -55.8 -56.2 -56.5 -56.8 -57.0 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 50 52 51 47 48 46 47 45 47 47 49 53 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 3 2 2 4 6 7 10 11 10 9 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -78 -85 -97 -102 -35 -8 3 -12 2 -15 -30 -20 200 MB DIV -9 14 14 3 3 30 -6 0 2 33 0 27 41 700-850 TADV 19 14 10 11 9 6 -1 -3 1 5 17 13 14 LAND (KM) 313 413 504 552 564 684 752 765 815 916 1042 1143 1253 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.6 25.5 26.3 27.0 27.5 27.3 27.0 27.2 28.0 28.9 30.3 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 74.2 74.6 74.7 74.6 74.4 73.2 72.5 71.9 71.3 70.1 67.9 65.3 62.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 8 7 4 3 2 5 8 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 27 30 30 27 25 19 20 22 23 19 12 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 22. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 7. 4. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 37. 43. 44. 43. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.5 74.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 193.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.73 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.69 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 16.3% 13.3% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 7.2% 4.5% 1.1% 0.3% 2.1% 2.5% 2.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 8.1% 6.0% 3.4% 0.1% 0.7% 4.3% 0.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/11/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 41 50 62 68 69 68 67 67 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 39 48 60 66 67 66 65 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 34 43 55 61 62 61 60 60 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 26 35 47 53 54 53 52 52 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT