* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 38 44 54 61 63 64 67 67 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 30 38 44 54 61 63 64 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 23 24 26 29 32 36 39 42 46 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 14 11 12 13 13 25 12 19 23 19 15 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -1 -1 -3 -5 0 -1 0 -4 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 304 350 49 55 25 346 323 1 341 336 347 343 344 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.5 26.7 26.2 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 137 139 139 135 134 133 135 131 122 118 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 123 123 121 115 112 111 115 114 107 102 109 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.1 -55.1 -55.0 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 -56.2 -56.7 -56.8 -57.1 -57.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.8 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 44 47 48 46 42 47 49 50 47 48 51 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 6 6 9 11 11 10 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR -80 -89 -99 -89 -101 -55 -24 32 32 9 9 -1 6 200 MB DIV -8 -1 8 11 1 45 15 54 -10 -5 12 28 15 700-850 TADV 19 21 15 9 14 9 2 2 0 4 5 -2 9 LAND (KM) 345 450 556 650 722 810 798 813 866 958 1097 979 761 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.2 25.4 26.3 27.2 28.6 29.2 29.7 30.1 31.1 32.7 35.0 37.7 LONG(DEG W) 72.5 72.8 73.0 72.9 72.8 72.0 71.2 70.3 69.1 67.0 64.5 62.5 60.7 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 9 9 6 4 5 8 12 14 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 24 23 22 22 20 14 11 9 8 3 1 0 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 6. 8. 7. 5. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 13. 19. 29. 36. 38. 39. 42. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.0 72.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.59 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.14 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 13.5% 10.9% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.0% 3.9% 2.0% 0.8% 2.2% 1.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 6.5% 5.0% 3.3% 0.3% 0.7% 2.5% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 28 30 38 44 54 61 63 64 67 67 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 37 43 53 60 62 63 66 66 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 33 39 49 56 58 59 62 62 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 25 31 41 48 50 51 54 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT