* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 56 66 73 73 74 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 56 66 73 73 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 29 33 39 47 53 56 58 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 15 7 9 9 10 13 14 12 20 16 11 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -1 -3 -4 -7 -7 SHEAR DIR 283 294 339 65 73 29 323 326 327 342 308 8 3 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.4 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 133 130 135 139 139 136 135 135 135 132 123 121 132 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 120 122 124 122 117 114 114 114 116 109 107 116 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -56.4 -56.6 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 46 45 48 49 47 46 46 49 46 45 46 56 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 4 6 10 14 17 15 14 14 850 MB ENV VOR -63 -71 -82 -89 -92 -89 -22 6 26 16 11 0 3 200 MB DIV -2 0 -2 17 15 15 47 19 41 -4 5 39 25 700-850 TADV 14 15 16 13 10 11 5 2 -2 6 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 256 372 469 571 655 721 788 832 897 971 1104 976 674 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 23.5 24.7 25.8 26.7 28.2 29.0 29.3 29.6 30.5 32.3 35.1 38.8 LONG(DEG W) 72.4 73.0 73.4 73.6 73.5 72.9 71.7 70.5 69.2 67.3 64.6 62.2 60.4 STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 6 7 12 16 18 21 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 24 24 23 17 13 11 10 5 3 0 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 15 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 5. 10. 12. 10. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 12. 20. 31. 41. 48. 48. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 22.2 72.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.15 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.70 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 18.0% 14.8% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 11.2% 7.7% 3.0% 1.0% 3.5% 2.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 10.1% 7.6% 4.5% 0.3% 1.2% 3.9% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 37 45 56 66 73 73 74 75 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 35 43 54 64 71 71 72 73 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 30 38 49 59 66 66 67 68 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 30 41 51 58 58 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT