* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 34 37 44 51 58 62 65 67 67 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 34 37 44 51 58 62 65 67 67 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 28 30 33 39 45 51 56 60 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 26 22 10 2 9 9 9 10 18 16 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 -2 -4 0 0 0 -4 -3 -6 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 278 270 292 289 1 64 71 336 348 334 356 9 29 SST (C) 28.2 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 132 131 133 134 140 142 136 136 134 135 136 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 123 121 121 120 123 121 115 114 112 113 115 119 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.9 -55.0 -55.5 -55.5 -55.7 -55.9 -56.1 -56.0 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 47 46 48 51 52 48 48 44 46 43 44 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 2 2 3 2 5 6 7 8 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -33 -56 -64 -72 -105 -85 -42 -9 -26 -37 -68 -54 200 MB DIV -1 6 -8 -12 22 -2 31 -19 15 -12 -11 -18 -1 700-850 TADV 15 10 13 16 10 7 6 1 -3 -4 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 22 122 168 241 341 513 595 679 640 610 593 588 570 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.7 26.8 26.7 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 73.5 74.2 74.7 74.9 74.9 74.1 73.2 72.9 72.9 73.3 73.7 74.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 10 8 5 3 3 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 27 31 30 30 31 24 22 22 21 23 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 14. 21. 28. 32. 35. 37. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 20.1 72.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 14.5% 11.5% 9.0% 7.0% 10.1% 8.0% 15.6% Logistic: 0.6% 2.5% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 1.1% 0.9% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.7% 4.3% 3.2% 2.4% 3.7% 2.9% 5.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 32 34 37 44 51 58 62 65 67 67 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 33 36 43 50 57 61 64 66 66 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 40 47 54 58 61 63 63 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 32 39 46 50 53 55 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT