* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 28 30 34 40 50 59 68 72 74 74 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 32 33 37 43 53 63 71 76 77 78 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 30 29 28 27 29 34 42 50 57 60 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 34 27 22 24 17 3 6 8 1 10 17 11 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -5 -9 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 278 283 270 275 272 277 69 113 259 294 314 355 360 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 28.2 27.7 27.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 140 133 133 145 143 142 136 135 133 133 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 153 131 124 123 131 126 121 115 115 113 114 123 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.7 -55.5 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 50 51 50 49 51 53 49 46 43 41 41 42 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 6 9 11 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 22 9 -4 -24 -38 -75 -108 -64 -41 -50 -66 -66 -82 200 MB DIV -2 18 14 -13 -9 31 1 14 -12 -9 -21 -14 -8 700-850 TADV 17 15 7 11 21 9 5 2 -4 -5 -5 -1 -4 LAND (KM) -42 38 21 33 102 304 459 568 596 522 453 437 375 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.3 20.1 20.9 21.9 24.0 25.8 26.5 26.1 25.4 24.9 24.9 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 71.9 73.2 74.0 74.8 75.4 75.8 75.6 74.4 73.8 73.8 74.3 74.9 75.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 8 5 3 4 3 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 61 51 34 27 32 40 35 26 24 25 29 33 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 2. 4. 3. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. 0. 4. 10. 20. 29. 38. 42. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.6 71.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.19 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.12 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.70 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.71 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 8.7% 6.3% 5.3% 3.6% 7.3% 6.2% 15.2% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.2% 2.3% 1.8% 1.2% 2.6% 2.3% 5.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/10/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 32 32 33 37 43 53 63 71 76 77 78 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 30 34 40 50 60 68 73 74 75 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 31 37 47 57 65 70 71 72 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 25 31 41 51 59 64 65 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT