* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 27 32 36 45 53 60 66 70 73 V (KT) LAND 30 27 29 29 29 33 38 47 54 62 67 72 75 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 29 27 26 25 25 28 33 40 47 55 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 34 28 24 26 9 2 7 3 3 14 17 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 0 0 -1 1 1 0 0 -7 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 270 277 276 266 277 272 338 74 90 329 328 359 7 SST (C) 28.0 29.2 29.6 28.6 28.5 29.8 29.5 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 139 157 163 146 144 166 160 152 149 148 149 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 154 156 136 134 154 142 132 126 123 125 124 126 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.5 -55.4 -55.5 -55.6 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 49 49 49 49 49 53 48 48 46 44 41 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 4 2 4 5 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 23 8 -1 -22 -51 -105 -76 -46 -14 -36 -47 -67 200 MB DIV 16 8 34 21 -6 33 -4 24 -10 15 -22 -18 -14 700-850 TADV 9 17 11 5 9 17 9 9 1 -4 -1 -1 0 LAND (KM) 15 -17 11 11 50 217 396 446 564 625 620 590 575 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.8 19.6 20.3 21.1 23.2 25.2 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.3 26.1 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 70.7 72.3 73.4 74.3 75.0 76.0 76.2 75.6 74.4 73.8 73.7 74.0 74.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 11 11 11 9 7 4 2 2 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 21 37 35 27 26 42 50 34 26 25 25 25 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 14. 19. 23. 27. 29. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -3. 2. 6. 15. 23. 30. 36. 40. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.1 70.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.19 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.72 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 6.8% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 6.3% 5.7% 13.4% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.5% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 2.1% 4.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 27 29 29 29 33 38 47 54 62 67 72 75 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 31 35 40 49 56 64 69 74 77 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 30 35 44 51 59 64 69 72 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 29 38 45 53 58 63 66 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT