* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 37 38 41 48 54 59 63 65 66 67 V (KT) LAND 35 36 30 33 34 37 43 49 54 58 60 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 30 29 32 31 31 34 39 46 52 57 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 31 35 28 25 14 3 7 8 18 21 25 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 -1 2 0 -1 -3 -2 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 259 275 283 279 270 286 79 54 360 331 335 337 341 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.7 28.4 29.1 29.2 29.0 27.9 28.1 28.4 27.9 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 141 148 143 154 155 151 135 137 141 135 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 137 137 142 135 144 140 133 116 117 122 117 114 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -55.0 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 48 46 48 46 44 47 49 48 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 35 14 -2 -19 -55 -90 -98 -29 8 32 28 1 200 MB DIV 46 18 1 16 16 -11 23 2 26 5 27 -11 8 700-850 TADV 10 15 23 16 9 17 9 8 9 6 7 9 10 LAND (KM) 70 20 -88 0 99 226 438 485 656 812 936 987 1093 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.1 19.0 19.9 20.8 23.0 25.3 27.2 28.3 28.4 28.2 28.5 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.5 70.1 71.5 72.7 73.6 75.2 75.6 75.2 73.6 72.0 70.3 68.6 66.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 13 13 13 10 9 8 7 7 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 52 27 21 31 39 30 20 16 19 17 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 13. 19. 24. 28. 30. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.5 68.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.18 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.09 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.67 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 7.4% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 5.3% 12.6% Logistic: 0.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 1.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 2.4% 2.4% 4.8% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 30 33 34 37 43 49 54 58 60 62 63 18HR AGO 35 34 28 31 32 35 41 47 52 56 58 60 61 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 35 38 44 50 55 59 61 63 64 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 35 41 46 50 52 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT