* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/09/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 35 35 37 42 48 56 64 75 78 76 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 30 33 34 39 45 53 61 72 75 73 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 29 29 30 29 31 36 45 56 64 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 29 35 35 25 20 5 2 7 6 16 24 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 0 -1 1 0 -3 -5 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 260 256 272 282 283 277 266 6 42 349 346 339 354 SST (C) 28.1 27.8 28.1 29.1 29.0 28.5 29.2 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 137 140 155 152 144 155 154 152 147 148 148 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 136 137 151 144 134 141 136 130 125 124 124 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.4 -55.5 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 48 49 47 46 47 47 51 44 45 44 48 47 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 5 6 12 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 40 45 33 16 2 -25 -64 -106 -68 -28 0 -20 -4 200 MB DIV 42 38 17 15 9 -4 31 9 43 -4 13 -19 8 700-850 TADV 16 14 7 10 9 10 13 7 8 1 0 0 5 LAND (KM) 102 77 7 -49 11 124 301 477 535 644 690 683 728 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.1 20.0 21.7 23.8 25.6 26.9 27.0 26.7 26.4 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 67.4 69.3 70.8 72.2 73.2 74.6 75.5 75.4 74.7 73.6 72.9 72.4 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 15 14 12 11 11 8 6 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 27 19 21 63 29 27 32 35 28 24 24 23 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 773 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. 2. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 7. 13. 21. 29. 40. 43. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.1 67.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/09/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.03 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.20 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 286.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.3% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% 12.2% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.6% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 2.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 4.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/09/18 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/09/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 30 33 34 39 45 53 61 72 75 73 18HR AGO 35 34 35 29 32 33 38 44 52 60 71 74 72 12HR AGO 35 32 31 25 28 29 34 40 48 56 67 70 68 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 34 40 48 56 67 70 68 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT