* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 37 39 41 47 52 57 59 61 62 V (KT) LAND 35 36 32 31 33 36 38 44 48 53 56 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 34 30 32 30 29 31 34 40 47 54 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 24 28 34 31 23 9 4 6 7 17 21 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 -2 4 2 -2 -3 0 -4 SHEAR DIR 269 259 257 270 279 265 303 85 360 348 344 349 5 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 28.3 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.4 28.3 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 138 134 132 141 152 153 150 140 138 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 137 130 126 131 138 134 130 119 115 119 120 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -55.0 -55.3 -55.6 -55.6 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 44 45 46 48 46 45 47 46 43 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 5 5 5 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 33 25 12 -11 -32 -64 -92 -100 -36 0 15 8 200 MB DIV 26 37 23 8 -3 28 -13 24 -1 24 -4 -1 -17 700-850 TADV 18 15 7 5 9 8 12 3 9 3 2 2 5 LAND (KM) 153 38 -15 -57 22 182 309 493 535 646 725 792 823 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.6 18.3 19.1 20.0 21.8 23.7 25.6 27.0 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 65.2 67.0 68.7 70.3 71.7 73.6 74.9 75.1 74.7 73.6 72.8 72.1 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 17 17 15 11 11 8 7 5 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 25 20 43 15 22 25 32 28 21 19 20 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 24. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 12. 17. 22. 24. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 65.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.10 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.68 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 7.8% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 11.5% Logistic: 0.9% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.2% 1.2% 1.8% 2.3% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.2% 2.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.3% 0.6% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 32 31 33 36 38 44 48 53 56 58 59 18HR AGO 35 34 30 29 31 34 36 42 46 51 54 56 57 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 32 35 37 43 47 52 55 57 58 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 30 32 38 42 47 50 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT