* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 38 40 47 50 57 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 32 31 35 38 45 48 55 58 62 63 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 31 27 29 28 28 31 37 43 49 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 29 30 32 24 20 6 6 12 24 21 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 2 4 -2 -2 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 264 270 261 258 273 281 292 10 9 339 324 338 339 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.4 28.0 27.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.7 27.8 27.9 28.1 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 145 139 136 149 151 151 146 133 133 136 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 145 137 133 141 138 135 127 113 112 114 106 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.2 -54.7 -54.4 -54.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.4 0.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 11 10 8 8 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 46 45 45 47 46 42 47 47 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 6 7 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 23 21 25 20 1 -35 -60 -85 -103 -54 -23 10 27 200 MB DIV 11 13 19 6 18 16 2 38 -5 34 1 18 -17 700-850 TADV 9 16 13 6 3 9 9 13 0 10 0 5 2 LAND (KM) 350 134 13 -5 -18 156 286 480 585 673 747 739 775 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.0 17.8 18.6 19.4 21.3 23.1 25.2 26.8 28.2 29.0 29.6 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 65.2 66.9 68.5 70.0 72.5 74.0 74.5 74.2 73.4 72.5 71.6 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 21 19 18 17 16 13 11 9 8 7 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 20 24 19 13 24 35 34 24 18 18 15 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -5. -5. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 12. 15. 22. 26. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.2 63.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.01 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.12 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.19 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.63 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.63 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 7.7% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% Logistic: 1.2% 1.9% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.2% 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 3.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 32 31 35 38 45 48 55 58 62 63 18HR AGO 35 34 34 31 30 34 37 44 47 54 57 61 62 12HR AGO 35 32 31 28 27 31 34 41 44 51 54 58 59 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 28 31 38 41 48 51 55 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT