* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/08/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 38 37 36 38 40 44 46 49 52 56 58 V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 37 36 38 40 44 46 49 52 56 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 36 35 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 24 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 2 -4 -5 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 276 275 263 270 276 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.9 27.4 27.8 27.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 126 132 138 137 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 128 135 142 141 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 50 46 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 56 53 42 23 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 7 16 10 16 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 9 4 4 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 703 574 496 502 424 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.3 16.0 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.1 56.9 58.6 60.6 62.5 66.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 4 21 11 13 24 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -2. 0. 4. 6. 9. 12. 16. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.4 55.1 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/08/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.62 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.58 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 7.0% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.5% 1.4% 1.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% 1.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 2.4% 0.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/08/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/08/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 38 37 36 38 40 44 46 49 52 56 58 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 37 39 41 45 47 50 53 57 59 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 36 38 42 44 47 50 54 56 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 31 33 37 39 42 45 49 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT