* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/08/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 36 34 33 32 33 35 38 41 44 47 51 53 V (KT) LAND 40 36 34 33 32 33 35 38 41 44 47 51 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 35 32 30 29 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 18 18 25 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 5 3 -5 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 267 267 277 275 264 276 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 126 132 137 143 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 128 136 141 146 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -54.9 -55.5 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 52 51 48 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 53 55 40 17 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 14 5 24 20 20 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 9 11 6 4 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 801 705 587 501 503 223 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.5 14.0 14.7 15.3 16.6 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.5 55.1 56.7 58.6 60.5 64.4 68.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 18 19 20 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 3 21 11 20 22 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.9 53.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/08/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.26 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.65 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.56 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.58 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 8.6% 6.4% 6.4% 5.0% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.1% 2.3% 2.2% 1.7% 2.5% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/08/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/08/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 36 34 33 32 33 35 38 41 44 47 51 53 18HR AGO 40 39 37 36 35 36 38 41 44 47 50 54 56 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 35 37 40 43 46 49 53 55 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 30 32 35 38 41 44 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT