* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/07/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 37 36 35 35 35 36 36 39 41 46 48 V (KT) LAND 45 40 37 36 35 35 35 36 35 38 40 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 33 31 29 27 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 20 21 32 34 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 6 4 -5 -3 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 299 276 278 286 289 274 280 287 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 26.9 26.8 26.8 27.2 27.8 28.3 28.8 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 125 124 125 129 138 144 152 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 124 124 126 132 141 148 156 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 -54.8 -55.1 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 9 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 55 54 52 49 49 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 53 48 47 49 33 41 33 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -2 20 12 15 17 43 38 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 5 6 6 3 6 8 2 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 776 797 729 595 502 493 156 42 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.9 13.3 13.9 14.4 15.6 16.6 17.9 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.4 54.8 56.5 58.2 62.0 66.1 70.1 74.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 16 17 18 20 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 2 18 12 33 21 41 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -17. -19. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -8. -5. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -6. -4. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 12.4 52.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.34 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.25 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.65 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.48 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 9.2% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 3.2% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/07/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 40 37 36 35 35 35 36 35 38 40 45 47 18HR AGO 45 44 41 40 39 39 39 40 39 42 44 49 51 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 39 39 40 39 42 44 49 51 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 34 34 35 34 37 39 44 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT