* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 48 47 46 47 46 45 44 47 49 53 55 V (KT) LAND 55 51 48 47 46 47 46 45 39 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 50 47 45 44 44 43 40 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 12 17 18 22 32 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 5 4 5 -2 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 287 270 276 287 269 276 275 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 27.6 28.2 28.5 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 127 125 125 134 143 148 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 128 127 127 137 148 154 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -55.4 -54.8 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 9 9 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 56 55 53 49 48 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 10 10 8 9 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 54 53 46 45 44 40 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 0 23 44 17 20 47 45 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 1 7 9 9 15 5 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 772 757 765 748 611 452 361 133 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.7 15.7 16.9 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.4 51.6 52.9 54.5 56.1 59.8 63.5 67.7 72.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 18 18 20 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 1 0 1 16 19 24 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -14. -14. -13. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -10. -11. -8. -6. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 11.7 50.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.39 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 317.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.41 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 10.7% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.8% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/07/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 51 48 47 46 47 46 45 39 34 31 29 28 18HR AGO 55 54 51 50 49 50 49 48 42 37 34 32 31 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 50 49 48 42 37 34 32 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 45 44 43 37 32 29 27 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT