* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/07/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 64 63 63 62 60 57 56 55 56 60 61 V (KT) LAND 65 64 64 63 63 62 60 57 56 48 53 56 57 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 62 62 62 60 57 53 43 43 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 7 9 16 16 26 32 36 36 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 4 5 2 1 0 0 1 -4 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 306 293 268 277 285 263 283 281 270 265 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.5 27.0 27.4 27.6 28.0 28.0 29.6 29.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 124 121 127 132 135 140 140 166 172 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 129 125 122 129 136 139 143 143 172 176 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.7 -54.6 -54.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 12 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 59 57 56 53 50 49 52 54 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 45 57 58 47 53 46 43 47 15 -12 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 0 19 46 60 21 43 48 19 50 39 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 1 6 8 10 3 3 13 -1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 751 732 720 736 689 430 478 215 134 0 41 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.9 11.4 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.8 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.5 20.5 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.2 50.5 51.8 53.4 55.0 58.5 62.5 66.4 70.3 74.3 78.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 16 17 19 20 19 20 21 22 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 12 11 2 4 23 11 54 23 35 52 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -10. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.9 49.2 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.51 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 324.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 38.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 16.8% 14.2% 12.0% 10.7% 12.5% 10.0% 5.5% Logistic: 2.1% 5.8% 4.0% 2.2% 1.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.6% 6.1% 4.7% 3.9% 4.7% 3.5% 2.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/07/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 64 63 63 62 60 57 56 48 53 56 57 18HR AGO 65 64 64 63 63 62 60 57 56 48 53 56 57 12HR AGO 65 62 61 60 60 59 57 54 53 45 50 53 54 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 54 52 49 48 40 45 48 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT