* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/07/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 72 72 72 69 66 64 61 61 64 65 V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 72 72 72 69 66 64 61 61 64 65 V (KT) LGEM 70 71 71 71 72 73 72 68 64 58 52 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 4 9 9 6 17 17 28 34 41 38 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 6 4 2 0 -1 -4 -3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 312 316 321 328 290 300 270 278 277 281 261 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.2 26.8 26.6 27.4 27.6 27.9 27.8 28.9 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 127 123 122 132 135 139 138 154 163 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 125 127 123 122 135 140 146 143 157 166 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 -55.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 11 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 60 58 59 54 53 52 53 54 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 15 13 12 13 10 9 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 44 51 52 43 45 50 56 39 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 19 20 20 20 17 33 47 47 35 55 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 -1 0 4 3 12 0 14 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 789 749 727 720 740 576 379 340 168 30 65 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.8 12.3 13.2 14.1 15.3 16.6 17.9 18.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.3 49.4 50.5 51.8 53.1 56.3 60.1 64.4 68.9 73.1 76.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 14 15 18 20 22 22 20 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 12 11 3 9 13 27 24 36 44 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -9. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.7 48.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 314.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.60 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 63.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 19.2% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 13.7% 12.3% 8.6% Logistic: 3.3% 9.7% 8.0% 4.0% 1.5% 2.4% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.7% 8.3% 1.3% 0.5% 5.4% 4.4% 3.1% DTOPS: 17.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/07/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/07/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 71 72 72 72 72 69 66 64 61 61 64 65 18HR AGO 70 69 70 70 70 70 67 64 62 59 59 62 63 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 66 66 63 60 58 55 55 58 59 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 60 57 54 52 49 49 52 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT