* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 74 73 73 70 66 65 61 62 64 65 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 74 73 73 70 66 65 61 58 60 61 V (KT) LGEM 70 72 74 75 76 75 72 67 62 56 49 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 3 6 13 12 19 18 29 34 43 37 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 2 3 0 2 -2 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 292 299 310 306 285 284 264 277 276 269 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 26.8 27.1 27.5 27.7 27.9 28.2 29.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 126 128 124 128 133 136 139 142 166 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 125 128 125 130 137 140 142 143 167 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.8 -54.6 -55.0 -55.0 -54.6 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 59 58 52 52 47 47 48 52 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 14 12 13 11 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 47 51 43 47 42 45 42 43 46 19 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 25 25 16 9 34 35 41 48 41 56 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -2 -2 -1 1 4 16 11 9 13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 848 811 784 780 783 703 441 446 167 60 13 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.4 13.4 14.2 15.2 16.4 17.6 18.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.3 48.3 49.3 50.5 51.8 55.1 58.9 62.9 66.9 70.7 74.1 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 13 15 18 19 20 20 18 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 10 7 2 25 12 37 24 37 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -9. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -8. -9. -13. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 0. -4. -5. -9. -8. -6. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.6 47.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 327.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.22 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 19.9% 17.0% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 9.4% 7.5% 3.1% 1.0% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.8% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 10.0% 8.6% 5.5% 0.4% 0.9% 4.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 35.0% 23.0% 22.0% 18.0% 9.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 72 74 74 73 73 70 66 65 61 58 60 61 18HR AGO 70 69 71 71 70 70 67 63 62 58 55 57 58 12HR AGO 70 67 66 66 65 65 62 58 57 53 50 52 53 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 59 56 52 51 47 44 46 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT