* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 77 76 74 72 70 68 69 71 74 75 V (KT) LAND 70 73 76 77 76 74 72 70 68 69 71 74 75 V (KT) LGEM 70 75 78 80 81 80 78 73 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 9 14 13 21 22 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 0 0 0 3 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 27 353 308 324 293 291 274 275 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 26.5 27.3 27.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 124 123 124 126 121 131 132 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 122 122 122 126 122 134 134 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -54.7 -54.4 -54.9 -54.6 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 60 58 54 52 50 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 14 13 12 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 52 54 41 46 41 51 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 22 36 25 14 4 11 23 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 -2 -3 0 3 5 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 944 899 852 831 826 830 571 448 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.7 12.1 13.1 13.9 14.8 15.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.0 48.0 49.1 50.1 53.0 56.8 60.5 64.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 11 11 13 17 18 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 2 3 2 7 1 7 13 18 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 10.7 46.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 3.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.86 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.59 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.20 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.23 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.65 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 21.6% 18.3% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 11.3% 9.1% 3.6% 0.9% 4.1% 1.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 9.0% 5.2% 4.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 12.7% 10.6% 6.1% 0.4% 1.5% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 6.0% 56.0% 53.0% 50.0% 38.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 73 76 77 76 74 72 70 68 69 71 74 75 18HR AGO 70 69 72 73 72 70 68 66 64 65 67 70 71 12HR AGO 70 67 66 67 66 64 62 60 58 59 61 64 65 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 57 55 53 51 52 54 57 58 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT