* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 70 73 77 77 78 77 73 72 72 73 76 77 V (KT) LAND 65 70 73 77 77 78 77 73 72 72 73 76 77 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 77 80 83 85 82 77 74 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 3 10 14 18 20 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 1 -1 0 3 3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 18 34 32 342 318 331 298 298 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 26.2 26.9 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 121 123 124 126 128 118 126 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 118 121 123 125 128 119 129 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.0 -55.0 -54.5 -54.4 -54.7 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 62 63 59 55 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 13 12 12 12 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 61 50 53 52 45 39 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 17 30 48 33 -14 0 -1 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 0 -1 -2 1 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1026 974 928 883 842 795 785 497 452 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.5 10.7 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.3 13.1 14.0 14.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.6 45.6 46.5 47.6 48.6 51.2 54.1 57.8 61.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 14 17 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 9 5 6 1 21 13 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 12. 12. 13. 12. 8. 7. 7. 8. 11. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.5 44.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.79 11.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.64 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.23 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.6% 41.3% 29.6% 25.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.3% 28.6% 23.9% 12.3% 3.7% 11.6% 3.6% 1.8% Bayesian: 11.2% 5.2% 7.1% 1.4% 0.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 25.1% 20.2% 13.2% 1.5% 4.3% 1.3% 0.6% DTOPS: 8.0% 40.0% 33.0% 14.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 70 73 77 77 78 77 73 72 72 73 76 77 18HR AGO 65 64 67 71 71 72 71 67 66 66 67 70 71 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 65 66 65 61 60 60 61 64 65 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 55 56 55 51 50 50 51 54 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT