* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/06/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 64 67 69 68 66 66 67 69 72 74 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 64 67 69 68 66 66 67 69 72 74 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 67 70 74 74 71 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 8 6 4 15 15 24 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 0 1 2 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 75 15 9 356 301 312 287 295 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.9 26.4 26.7 26.7 27.0 26.4 26.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 113 118 120 121 126 120 125 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 110 115 117 118 126 121 127 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.2 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 62 60 61 57 53 50 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 61 57 51 51 34 34 30 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 25 1 7 12 -9 -13 -7 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -5 -3 -2 -3 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1106 1049 1002 971 940 874 847 622 427 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.5 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.4 45.4 46.3 47.1 49.5 52.6 56.3 60.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 10 14 17 19 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 5 2 0 6 14 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 13. 11. 11. 12. 14. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 10.3 43.4 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 9.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.87 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 240.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.68 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 34.6% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% Logistic: 6.8% 22.4% 17.6% 8.7% 3.0% 9.7% 3.8% 2.4% Bayesian: 5.3% 11.4% 6.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 22.8% 16.2% 3.2% 1.2% 3.5% 1.3% 6.0% DTOPS: 21.0% 14.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/06/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/06/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 62 64 67 69 68 66 66 67 69 72 74 18HR AGO 55 54 57 59 62 64 63 61 61 62 64 67 69 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 56 58 57 55 55 56 58 61 63 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 50 49 47 47 48 50 53 55 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT