* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BERYL AL022018 07/05/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 57 60 63 64 63 63 65 68 71 73 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 57 60 63 64 63 63 65 68 71 73 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 58 61 66 69 68 67 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 4 5 11 17 18 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 2 0 2 -1 -1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 80 58 359 344 290 318 294 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.3 25.9 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.6 26.6 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 108 113 118 119 123 122 123 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 110 106 111 115 117 121 122 125 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.8 -55.0 -54.9 -54.6 -55.0 -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 4 5 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 60 58 59 52 48 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 57 63 56 49 43 28 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 21 8 -11 7 -1 -26 -15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -6 -6 -3 -1 -2 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1201 1132 1074 1034 998 922 891 762 529 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 11.7 12.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.3 43.4 44.5 45.5 46.5 48.7 51.4 54.9 58.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 11 10 11 12 16 19 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 23 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 10.3 42.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022018 BERYL 07/05/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.73 9.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 5.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 4.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.60 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.72 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 37.6% 26.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 24.9% 26.8% 16.6% 3.8% 11.4% 1.9% 1.3% Bayesian: 3.2% 0.7% 5.0% 1.1% 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 21.1% 19.5% 5.9% 1.5% 4.4% 0.6% 0.4% DTOPS: 9.0% 9.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022018 BERYL 07/05/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022018 BERYL 07/05/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 57 60 63 64 63 63 65 68 71 73 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 54 57 58 57 57 59 62 65 67 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 50 51 50 50 52 55 58 60 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 41 42 41 41 43 46 49 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT