* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022017 06/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 26 21 19 18 17 17 20 23 26 V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 26 21 19 18 17 17 20 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 30 33 31 30 27 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 10 9 6 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 194 191 198 201 212 219 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.9 28.0 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 137 137 136 139 140 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 141 143 143 146 146 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 8 8 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 71 73 73 68 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 10 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 20 30 42 51 50 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 89 71 47 45 48 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 9 6 -1 -2 -7 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 124 103 59 57 244 413 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 14.1 14.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.4 68.1 69.8 71.8 73.9 78.2 82.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 18 20 21 20 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 20 16 14 23 27 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 21 CX,CY: -19/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -13. -15. -18. -19. -19. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -15. -12. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 11.7 66.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.02 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 16.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.10 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.65 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.71 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.46 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 12.3% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.7% 2.1% 5.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 1.6% 4.5% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 BRET 06/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 33 31 28 26 21 19 18 17 17 20 23 26 18HR AGO 35 34 32 29 27 22 20 19 18 18 21 24 27 12HR AGO 35 32 31 28 26 21 19 18 17 17 20 23 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT