* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022017 06/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 41 40 35 34 31 30 29 30 32 34 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 41 40 35 34 31 30 29 30 32 34 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 34 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 27 29 28 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 12 8 7 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 189 187 194 193 202 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 135 140 139 139 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 133 140 146 146 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 73 73 68 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 11 12 26 31 48 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 73 74 62 24 32 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 11 12 2 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 66 161 184 134 132 303 441 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.9 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.6 65.2 66.8 68.6 70.5 74.6 78.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 17 19 20 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 4 19 24 21 30 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -15. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -0. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -10. -8. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.3 63.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.18 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.09 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.0 28.4 to 139.6 0.64 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.44 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 131.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.3% 16.3% 12.1% 7.6% 5.9% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.8% 8.6% 4.4% 1.2% 0.2% 3.2% 5.3% 8.6% Bayesian: 0.7% 3.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.4% 2.3% 15.9% Consensus: 3.9% 9.3% 5.9% 3.0% 2.1% 4.9% 2.5% 8.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 BRET 06/20/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 41 40 35 34 31 30 29 30 32 34 18HR AGO 40 39 40 39 38 33 32 29 28 27 28 30 32 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 29 28 25 24 23 24 26 28 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 24 23 20 19 18 19 21 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT