* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022017 06/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 38 36 32 32 32 33 35 37 39 V (KT) LAND 35 35 37 38 37 35 31 31 31 32 34 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 34 33 30 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 15 16 14 21 21 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 7 7 8 7 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 222 220 195 194 202 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.0 27.0 27.5 27.7 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 134 127 126 133 137 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 141 130 128 137 145 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 9 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 69 70 71 72 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 14 22 15 33 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 117 93 83 87 29 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 2 8 12 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 69 39 22 128 162 94 296 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.5 12.0 12.8 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.4 62.1 63.8 65.3 66.8 70.6 75.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 21 18 17 16 17 22 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 5 6 2 16 14 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 23 CX,CY: -21/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 732 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 3. 1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.7 60.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.05 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.48 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.67 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.61 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 118.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.82 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.9% 11.5% 6.5% 0.0% 10.8% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 12.7% 5.4% 1.5% 0.5% 2.9% 6.6% 13.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 4.0% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 1.4% 14.9% Consensus: 2.9% 10.9% 6.0% 2.7% 0.2% 4.6% 6.5% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 BRET 06/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 37 38 37 35 31 31 31 32 34 36 38 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 36 34 30 30 30 31 33 35 37 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 29 25 25 25 26 28 30 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 18 18 18 19 21 23 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT