* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022017 06/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 42 39 37 38 39 40 42 43 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 33 31 35 32 31 31 32 33 35 36 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 32 30 33 32 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 7 12 6 10 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 8 12 7 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 206 212 200 170 201 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 27.6 27.0 26.7 27.7 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 134 127 124 136 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 153 142 132 128 144 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 71 73 73 74 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 14 18 19 26 24 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 118 122 96 97 64 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 3 3 0 -2 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 126 70 -12 -44 81 44 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.7 9.2 9.7 10.3 10.9 11.9 12.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.2 60.0 61.8 63.5 65.1 68.9 73.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 17 18 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 12 2 4 10 5 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 730 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 4. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.7 58.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.06 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.44 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.72 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.63 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 98.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 23.7% 14.7% 8.4% 7.3% 12.9% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.3% 26.0% 11.6% 3.7% 2.7% 5.1% 9.1% 18.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 13.0% 3.8% 1.1% 999.0% 0.9% 3.1% 19.7% Consensus: 5.1% 20.9% 10.0% 4.4% 999.0% 6.3% 8.6% 12.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 TWO 06/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 33 31 35 32 31 31 32 33 35 36 38 18HR AGO 35 34 30 28 32 29 28 28 29 30 32 33 35 12HR AGO 35 32 31 29 33 30 29 29 30 31 33 34 36 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 26 25 25 26 27 29 30 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT