* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022017 06/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 48 48 45 42 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 47 48 48 45 42 43 45 47 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 41 43 44 42 39 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 3 9 11 21 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 2 2 6 9 10 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 245 245 214 210 214 189 202 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.7 28.1 28.2 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 140 143 144 136 141 143 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 151 152 153 153 142 148 149 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.3 -53.8 -54.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 9 9 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 62 63 63 65 68 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 16 4 17 11 2 3 19 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 64 64 94 115 53 70 21 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -2 0 2 0 11 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 299 338 279 232 55 235 150 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 7.7 8.3 8.9 9.6 10.2 11.2 12.7 13.4 13.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.4 53.3 55.2 57.0 58.8 62.3 65.8 69.6 73.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 19 19 18 18 19 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 28 33 38 25 8 17 29 23 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 10. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 7.7 51.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 3.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.22 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.41 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.81 2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.52 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 147.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 37.6% 19.4% 9.5% 8.1% 14.4% 17.1% 17.7% Logistic: 5.8% 34.3% 17.5% 7.2% 6.5% 5.0% 5.9% 12.9% Bayesian: 1.5% 7.4% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 1.0% 3.1% Consensus: 4.9% 26.4% 12.8% 5.6% 4.9% 6.7% 8.0% 11.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 TWO 06/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 TWO 06/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 47 48 48 45 42 43 45 47 48 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 45 45 42 39 40 42 44 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 39 39 36 33 34 36 38 39 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 29 29 26 23 24 26 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT