* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 06/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 46 45 41 39 38 37 36 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 40 43 46 45 41 39 38 37 36 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 37 39 43 45 45 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 7 11 18 23 31 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -1 -2 -1 -4 -2 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 291 274 268 284 313 314 328 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.0 23.2 23.5 23.9 23.9 23.2 22.3 22.0 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 93 95 98 98 95 91 89 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 81 82 85 86 84 82 81 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.5 -58.0 -57.9 -57.7 -58.3 -58.4 -58.4 -58.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 4 4 3 4 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 62 63 61 59 56 46 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -17 -7 8 9 38 49 47 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 23 17 22 14 -3 -24 -17 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -11 0 5 -8 -3 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 117 214 306 429 533 677 832 1029 1200 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.6 35.9 36.2 36.4 36.5 36.6 36.5 36.3 35.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.6 73.5 72.4 71.0 69.5 66.1 62.0 57.8 53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 10 12 13 15 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 3 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 788 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 3. -2. -7. -11. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 16. 15. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 35.6 74.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.69 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.51 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.22 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 64.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.35 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 12.6% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 4.6% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 06/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 37 40 43 46 45 41 39 38 37 36 18HR AGO 30 29 32 34 37 40 43 42 38 36 35 34 33 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 37 36 32 30 29 28 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 29 28 24 22 21 20 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT