* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 06/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 43 45 45 44 43 43 42 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 35 40 43 45 45 44 43 43 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 32 34 39 43 45 47 48 48 49 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 11 10 8 17 19 22 24 20 26 23 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -6 -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -1 5 3 3 7 SHEAR DIR 311 212 269 305 302 297 321 318 338 320 322 267 230 SST (C) 23.4 23.0 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.9 22.9 22.1 22.3 22.3 21.9 20.4 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 92 90 89 90 92 98 93 90 92 94 95 89 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 79 77 77 78 80 85 82 81 85 90 93 87 76 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.5 -57.3 -57.7 -58.2 -57.7 -58.0 -57.9 -58.2 -58.1 -58.3 -57.5 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.4 -0.5 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 4 5 3 4 5 5 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 58 57 58 59 60 58 60 54 54 45 45 46 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -9 -26 -23 -18 -4 14 10 31 67 84 123 185 200 MB DIV -6 3 19 18 25 13 -10 -29 -5 -10 38 51 65 700-850 TADV 0 1 4 0 -6 8 -4 6 -4 5 2 8 30 LAND (KM) 70 78 117 179 252 475 688 919 1131 1411 1673 2101 1405 LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.3 35.7 35.9 36.2 36.4 36.1 35.4 34.7 34.0 33.2 34.5 41.0 LONG(DEG W) 75.4 75.1 74.6 73.9 73.0 70.3 67.0 63.3 58.9 52.8 44.4 34.0 25.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 12 14 17 21 30 40 45 47 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 7 CX,CY: 6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 10. 8. 4. 0. -5. -9. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 15. 18. 20. 20. 19. 18. 18. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 34.9 75.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 06/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.82 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.52 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.22 0.3 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 88.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 134.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.1% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.3% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.2% 3.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 06/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 06/02/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 35 40 43 45 45 44 43 43 42 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 32 37 40 42 42 41 40 40 39 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 34 36 36 35 34 34 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 25 27 27 26 25 25 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT