* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/30/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 25 28 31 34 35 36 38 38 36 V (KT) LAND 20 22 24 25 25 26 26 27 30 31 34 33 31 V (KT) LGEM 20 22 24 25 25 26 26 27 31 35 40 43 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 26 21 16 20 12 14 8 12 18 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -9 -8 -3 -6 -1 -5 0 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 178 176 190 210 209 199 234 242 304 259 257 249 265 SST (C) 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.0 23.9 22.5 20.8 20.3 20.0 20.2 19.5 18.5 POT. INT. (KT) 92 93 93 93 95 94 87 79 78 78 79 77 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 78 79 78 78 80 80 75 70 70 70 71 69 67 200 MB T (C) -58.0 -57.8 -57.6 -57.9 -58.1 -57.7 -57.9 -57.6 -57.8 -57.8 -58.3 -57.9 -58.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -1.2 -1.0 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 7 4 4 7 2 5 1 4 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 57 55 55 52 51 55 57 57 62 61 62 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -12 3 -5 -9 -5 -24 -8 -21 -11 -16 7 27 44 200 MB DIV 28 9 31 25 23 21 12 37 14 24 16 15 21 700-850 TADV -5 0 1 -4 -3 0 3 5 5 14 -3 4 0 LAND (KM) -44 -25 -10 -13 -15 -24 -21 -36 19 132 239 284 315 LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.7 33.8 33.9 34.0 34.5 35.1 35.8 36.4 37.2 38.1 38.8 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.4 79.0 78.8 78.5 77.8 77.0 76.3 75.6 74.2 72.2 70.3 68.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 4 4 5 4 6 8 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. 0. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 8. 5. 3. 0. -4. -9. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -10. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 18. 18. 16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 33.5 79.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 20.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.27 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 22 24 25 25 26 26 27 30 31 34 33 31 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 22 23 23 24 27 28 31 30 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 17 18 18 19 22 23 26 25 23 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT