* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/30/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 27 29 31 33 33 34 35 36 36 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 29 27 27 30 27 31 32 33 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 28 34 39 43 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 18 15 22 30 18 26 14 16 10 10 11 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -7 -4 -2 -5 -4 -4 -7 -1 -6 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 174 186 187 171 191 202 198 217 227 269 257 282 252 SST (C) 22.8 22.9 23.1 23.2 23.4 23.6 23.1 21.7 20.8 19.8 19.2 19.6 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 86 88 89 90 91 92 90 82 79 77 75 76 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 74 76 77 77 77 79 77 72 70 69 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.8 -57.8 -57.5 -57.3 -57.8 -57.7 -57.9 -57.7 -57.8 -57.9 -58.4 -58.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.7 -0.6 -0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -1.0 -1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 3 6 7 4 7 3 5 2 3 0 1 700-500 MB RH 59 58 59 58 57 53 53 54 53 55 59 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 9 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 3 -4 0 10 3 -3 -11 4 -11 -28 -8 -14 5 200 MB DIV 36 28 24 47 22 25 9 -6 24 -1 15 20 21 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 1 0 -2 0 2 2 3 13 0 5 LAND (KM) -28 -33 -33 -16 0 -12 -5 0 -5 65 159 232 292 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.1 33.3 33.5 33.7 34.0 34.6 35.0 35.5 36.3 37.4 38.1 38.6 LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.0 79.7 79.3 79.0 78.4 77.4 76.7 76.0 75.1 73.7 72.3 70.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. 0. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 32.9 80.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 28.8 to 2.9 0.30 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.67 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.43 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.20 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 93.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 92.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 8.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 3.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/30/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 26 29 27 27 30 27 31 32 33 33 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 27 25 25 28 25 29 30 31 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 24 22 22 25 22 26 27 28 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 16 16 19 16 20 21 22 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT