* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 26 25 26 27 26 27 27 26 25 26 V (KT) LAND 30 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 26 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 33 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 22 23 24 22 17 31 24 32 20 21 11 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -5 -6 -1 -3 -3 -3 -6 -1 -2 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 162 165 177 183 180 190 208 206 225 226 284 291 292 SST (C) 23.3 23.0 22.7 22.7 22.7 23.3 22.7 21.8 21.1 20.8 19.9 19.8 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 92 89 87 86 87 91 87 82 79 78 75 74 76 ADJ. POT. INT. 80 77 75 74 75 77 75 71 69 69 67 66 67 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.0 -57.0 -57.2 -57.3 -57.0 -57.4 -57.1 -57.3 -57.4 -57.4 -57.4 -57.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 3 3 7 4 7 3 5 2 4 3 700-500 MB RH 64 64 61 59 58 53 51 51 53 54 57 59 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 12 11 10 9 10 9 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -12 -15 -13 -2 -7 -7 -14 -5 -14 -27 -4 -8 200 MB DIV 1 18 40 20 34 17 25 3 5 14 0 14 16 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 -5 -7 0 -1 0 2 2 2 12 -4 LAND (KM) 19 -33 -71 -71 -70 -50 -54 -38 -4 -5 42 81 125 LAT (DEG N) 32.7 33.2 33.7 33.9 34.1 34.3 34.8 35.1 35.2 35.5 36.1 36.4 36.5 LONG(DEG W) 79.7 79.8 79.9 79.8 79.6 78.6 77.9 77.2 76.6 76.0 75.4 74.9 74.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 2 3 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 497 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 4. -1. -6. -10. -14. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -14. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.7 79.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.28 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.39 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.16 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 72.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.28 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 112.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 6.8% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 2.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 32 31 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 28 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 22 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT