* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/29/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 36 34 35 33 32 33 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 30 32 32 31 30 30 28 27 24 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 30 33 34 35 37 37 41 44 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 20 22 26 22 24 31 26 25 18 19 14 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 0 1 -6 -8 0 -9 -2 -5 -2 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 169 159 161 171 178 173 211 188 226 226 258 271 310 SST (C) 24.4 23.9 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.7 23.8 23.4 22.5 21.9 22.0 21.9 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 99 95 91 90 89 93 93 91 85 83 84 82 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 84 82 78 77 77 79 79 77 73 73 72 70 68 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.9 -56.6 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -57.0 -57.3 -57.2 -57.4 -57.3 -57.3 -57.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 6 3 6 4 7 4 5 2 4 2 700-500 MB RH 58 64 64 61 59 55 52 51 48 51 51 52 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -16 -4 -4 -3 16 -23 -7 -25 -7 -18 -17 -13 200 MB DIV 15 11 33 38 19 51 0 18 15 18 -3 17 -1 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 -4 2 -1 0 1 0 5 3 8 LAND (KM) 148 93 38 7 -19 27 6 16 6 18 67 108 117 LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.0 32.5 32.9 33.2 33.5 34.0 34.4 34.7 35.0 35.4 35.7 35.8 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.5 79.7 79.6 79.6 78.8 77.9 77.3 76.8 76.1 75.2 74.7 74.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 3 4 4 3 3 4 3 2 0 HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 6 CX,CY: 0/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -2. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -17. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -6. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 31.5 79.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.26 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.15 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 94.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.6% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 35 30 32 32 31 30 30 28 27 24 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 29 31 31 30 29 29 27 26 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 26 28 28 27 26 26 24 23 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 20 22 22 21 20 20 18 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT