* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BONNIE AL022016 05/29/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 36 35 35 34 V (KT) LAND 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 36 35 35 34 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 35 35 34 35 36 38 40 43 46 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 20 21 20 25 19 33 18 26 16 20 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -1 1 -7 -2 -6 -4 -4 -7 -1 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 179 171 169 163 171 177 186 197 196 239 229 278 273 SST (C) 25.0 24.1 23.3 23.1 22.9 23.4 23.8 23.9 23.5 22.9 23.0 22.6 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 103 97 91 89 88 91 94 94 92 87 88 87 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 88 84 78 76 76 78 80 80 78 74 75 75 73 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.8 -57.0 -56.7 -56.6 -57.0 -56.8 -57.1 -57.0 -57.3 -57.1 -57.1 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 6 6 4 8 5 7 4 6 3 5 700-500 MB RH 52 56 61 60 58 55 52 52 53 53 53 53 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -24 -10 -5 5 15 7 -6 -10 -6 -16 -36 -38 200 MB DIV 32 11 4 24 40 40 27 12 31 17 2 4 -12 700-850 TADV 7 0 2 1 0 -5 0 -1 0 1 0 7 7 LAND (KM) 188 126 57 33 4 9 38 20 30 32 49 63 108 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.5 32.0 32.3 32.6 32.9 33.3 33.8 34.3 34.5 34.6 35.0 35.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.8 80.2 80.2 80.2 79.5 78.8 78.0 77.2 76.5 76.0 75.4 74.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 2. -2. -6. -9. -12. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 30.9 79.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.26 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.48 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.15 0.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 84.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 150.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 9.0% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 3.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 BONNIE 05/29/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 36 36 36 36 36 36 35 36 35 35 34 18HR AGO 35 34 35 35 35 35 35 35 34 35 34 34 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 30 31 30 30 29 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 25 24 24 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT