* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022016 05/28/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 38 41 42 41 40 39 40 40 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 38 41 33 34 33 33 33 34 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 34 30 33 34 36 39 42 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 20 23 23 21 25 28 29 21 18 12 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -5 -7 0 -10 -2 -8 0 -4 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 216 188 185 187 186 174 187 180 206 196 247 238 295 SST (C) 25.8 26.2 25.7 24.8 23.8 23.0 23.1 23.6 23.9 23.9 23.6 23.0 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 112 116 111 102 95 88 89 92 94 93 91 88 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 96 88 82 76 76 79 80 78 77 75 73 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.0 -56.8 -56.9 -56.9 -56.7 -57.0 -56.9 -57.1 -57.5 -57.2 -57.2 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 6 4 6 4 7 5 7 4 6 3 700-500 MB RH 48 49 53 56 60 60 53 49 49 51 50 53 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -39 -18 -21 -26 -9 -8 3 -36 -9 -15 -18 -47 200 MB DIV -14 12 46 28 20 27 35 16 -4 29 -6 17 -9 700-850 TADV 6 8 9 6 2 0 -2 0 -2 0 2 3 6 LAND (KM) 413 351 259 174 90 9 -19 19 20 40 44 31 35 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.2 30.8 31.4 32.0 32.6 33.1 33.5 33.8 34.0 34.2 34.5 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 76.5 77.5 78.5 79.1 79.6 80.1 79.7 78.9 78.0 77.4 77.1 76.6 76.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 9 8 6 3 3 4 3 2 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 1. -5. -9. -13. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 8. 11. 12. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.5 76.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.40 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.5 to 2.9 0.53 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 28.4 to 139.1 0.32 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 62.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.6% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 TWO 05/28/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 38 41 33 34 33 33 33 34 31 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 36 39 31 32 31 31 31 32 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 30 33 25 26 25 25 25 26 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT