* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO AL022016 05/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 41 42 43 43 42 41 41 40 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 41 35 37 36 36 34 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 34 31 33 36 38 41 43 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 15 15 20 22 19 24 17 35 20 20 13 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -2 -6 -7 -4 -6 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 217 212 197 184 181 180 174 197 199 214 212 253 259 SST (C) 25.0 25.6 26.1 25.9 25.0 23.1 23.1 23.5 24.0 24.1 23.9 23.4 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 105 110 115 113 105 90 89 92 95 95 93 91 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 97 100 98 91 78 76 79 80 80 79 78 78 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.6 -56.8 -56.8 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -57.4 -57.0 -57.5 -57.2 -57.2 -56.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 -0.6 0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 4 7 4 8 5 7 4 5 700-500 MB RH 52 48 51 55 57 63 58 52 50 51 55 55 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -35 -33 -19 -21 -18 -11 -5 -26 -19 -14 -7 -22 200 MB DIV 9 -13 13 50 34 -4 41 36 0 5 18 9 9 700-850 TADV 5 5 10 9 4 2 0 -6 0 1 -1 1 -1 LAND (KM) 520 433 355 295 186 33 -9 14 38 62 81 66 106 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 29.4 29.9 30.6 31.3 32.4 32.9 33.3 33.6 33.8 33.9 34.3 34.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.2 76.3 77.3 78.1 79.0 80.0 79.9 79.1 78.1 77.3 76.9 76.1 75.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 5 3 4 4 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 2. -3. -8. -12. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 11. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.8 75.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.39 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.8 to -3.1 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.34 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 57.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.43 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 163.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 1.3% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 999.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022016 TWO 05/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022016 TWO 05/28/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 41 35 37 36 36 34 34 33 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 39 33 35 34 34 32 32 31 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 34 28 30 29 29 27 27 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 26 20 22 21 21 19 19 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT