* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL992017 08/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 45 54 60 64 62 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 45 54 60 64 62 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 27 31 38 47 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 16 17 15 19 11 10 3 3 7 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 1 0 -2 -5 -3 -4 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 299 284 282 294 295 282 312 291 51 353 354 355 26 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.5 29.2 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 141 143 144 144 145 146 149 150 154 163 157 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 137 138 138 136 135 136 139 140 146 153 141 120 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -55.0 -55.3 -55.1 -54.7 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 47 46 49 52 54 49 47 44 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 7 -3 -14 -44 -52 -32 -22 -26 -51 -60 -61 200 MB DIV 48 31 36 24 23 -9 3 -8 14 2 -9 -36 14 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 3 7 6 7 0 -2 -1 -4 1 0 LAND (KM) 1134 1022 931 876 858 834 715 677 689 767 932 844 593 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 18.1 19.4 21.0 23.1 25.1 27.6 30.2 32.8 LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.2 54.4 55.5 56.4 57.8 59.0 59.9 61.5 63.8 66.8 69.3 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 9 9 9 11 13 17 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 32 31 32 33 32 32 54 45 23 33 27 33 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 20. 29. 35. 39. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.7 51.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL992017 INVEST 08/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.55 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.20 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.49 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.75 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.29 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 198.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 45.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.8% 11.9% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 11.7% 0.0% Logistic: 5.1% 12.8% 7.7% 5.2% 4.2% 1.9% 2.9% 16.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 3.6% 9.5% 6.5% 4.0% 1.4% 0.6% 4.9% 5.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL992017 INVEST 08/08/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL992017 INVEST 08/08/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 26 27 29 33 38 45 54 60 64 62 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 32 37 44 53 59 63 61 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 29 34 41 50 56 60 58 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 22 27 34 43 49 53 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT