* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 11/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 32 38 41 42 45 47 43 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 31 31 30 32 38 41 42 45 47 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 30 29 27 24 22 21 21 22 24 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 37 35 28 32 34 28 25 7 13 13 15 26 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 6 5 1 1 -4 1 -1 0 -5 -1 5 SHEAR DIR 243 240 233 233 239 239 242 253 313 331 269 236 227 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.3 28.2 28.2 27.3 26.8 25.4 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 134 135 140 146 143 141 140 128 124 115 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 129 124 124 131 140 138 132 130 116 113 112 106 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -54.5 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 -54.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 9 9 10 10 9 6 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 67 65 59 53 51 51 55 64 55 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 7 8 8 8 9 12 14 14 13 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 16 17 27 25 17 6 1 -18 -32 -35 -41 -23 28 200 MB DIV 42 42 73 49 53 36 30 0 -15 -8 20 45 126 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 -1 0 3 5 7 1 3 3 -18 1 LAND (KM) 692 711 705 656 581 379 206 309 364 540 780 793 959 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.2 19.1 20.1 21.7 23.0 24.7 27.2 31.0 35.5 LONG(DEG W) 58.0 58.7 59.1 59.5 60.2 62.2 65.0 67.7 70.0 71.8 72.0 69.2 61.3 STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 8 12 15 13 13 12 16 31 45 HEAT CONTENT 41 41 41 41 47 47 43 53 41 24 15 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 8. 11. 12. 15. 17. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 58.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 157.3 0.27 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 11/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 11/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 31 31 30 32 38 41 42 45 47 43 18HR AGO 30 29 30 30 30 29 31 37 40 41 44 46 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 26 25 27 33 36 37 40 42 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 21 27 30 31 34 36 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT