* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962018 07/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 45 53 57 61 61 57 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 45 53 57 61 61 57 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 25 28 31 35 39 43 47 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 7 10 13 10 17 27 14 8 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 0 -3 -1 2 0 -2 1 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 32 112 145 86 77 55 341 280 281 277 41 36 34 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.6 27.8 26.7 26.3 26.3 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 133 133 141 145 140 139 143 132 120 116 117 107 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 114 120 122 117 115 116 108 100 97 99 92 92 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.5 -56.1 -56.0 -56.1 -55.8 -56.2 -55.4 -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -56.3 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 9 4 5 4 6 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 54 53 51 50 51 53 48 44 43 43 46 45 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 5 5 4 3 4 6 9 10 10 9 7 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -64 -69 -68 -51 13 0 1 0 -22 1 -32 -27 200 MB DIV -5 -24 -39 4 2 28 31 20 17 23 -24 -19 -3 700-850 TADV -11 -7 0 0 -2 0 8 7 5 1 3 4 4 LAND (KM) 778 686 587 488 403 262 219 302 463 626 817 924 787 LAT (DEG N) 30.7 30.8 31.1 31.6 32.1 33.4 34.5 35.2 35.3 34.7 34.2 34.8 36.8 LONG(DEG W) 69.7 70.9 72.0 72.9 73.6 74.2 73.8 72.6 70.8 69.1 67.1 64.5 62.5 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 8 8 10 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 14 12 10 22 38 15 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 13. 18. 21. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 5. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 25. 33. 37. 41. 41. 37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 30.7 69.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962018 INVEST 07/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 157.3 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 67.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.33 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 11.5% 7.2% 1.8% 1.0% 4.8% 4.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 4.0% 2.4% 0.6% 0.3% 1.6% 1.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962018 INVEST 07/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962018 INVEST 07/05/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 21 22 24 26 30 36 45 53 57 61 61 57 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 28 34 43 51 55 59 59 55 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 24 30 39 47 51 55 55 51 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT