* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 55 59 63 69 72 73 73 78 84 85 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 55 59 63 69 72 73 73 78 84 85 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 52 56 61 68 72 70 69 71 73 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 19 12 5 12 18 19 27 18 13 17 16 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -1 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 3 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 176 167 165 9 339 359 342 317 283 253 217 236 218 SST (C) 26.0 26.3 26.2 26.6 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.0 25.3 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 113 117 117 122 125 125 129 123 122 120 114 109 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 105 105 112 114 114 114 107 105 104 101 98 90 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.5 -57.6 -56.9 -56.7 -56.3 -56.0 -56.2 -56.0 -56.0 -56.3 -56.3 -56.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -0.6 -0.1 0.8 0.8 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 56 52 45 44 41 43 48 58 57 48 42 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 23 24 24 23 21 22 24 24 23 27 30 31 850 MB ENV VOR 77 95 107 102 108 107 101 70 45 35 71 97 76 200 MB DIV 66 41 20 -21 -47 -36 -23 6 27 47 78 30 40 700-850 TADV 5 8 7 4 -4 -4 -5 2 9 13 4 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2282 2192 2107 1931 1757 1447 1212 1135 1165 1314 1524 1699 1556 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 13 16 15 13 9 5 6 8 12 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 3 5 7 8 10 6 7 5 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 5. 9. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 15. 19. 23. 29. 32. 33. 33. 38. 44. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 26.4 45.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.68 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.68 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.69 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.59 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 17.8% 14.6% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 12.6% Logistic: 2.1% 5.9% 2.9% 0.4% 0.2% 1.3% 1.6% 0.9% Bayesian: 3.1% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.3% 5.9% 3.6% 0.1% 0.5% 4.3% 4.5% DTOPS: 6.0% 14.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/27/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 51 55 59 63 69 72 73 73 78 84 85 18HR AGO 40 39 45 49 53 57 63 66 67 67 72 78 79 12HR AGO 40 37 36 40 44 48 54 57 58 58 63 69 70 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 34 38 44 47 48 48 53 59 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT