* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/26/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 53 57 58 58 58 57 59 63 65 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 53 57 58 58 58 57 59 63 65 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 43 46 49 54 56 56 54 56 60 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 22 12 2 20 23 31 31 21 18 30 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 -2 2 1 -2 0 -4 -5 0 -7 -9 -4 SHEAR DIR 191 172 166 166 31 1 359 338 318 291 265 259 269 SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.5 27.2 27.3 27.2 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.1 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 114 115 114 116 120 128 128 126 125 122 117 108 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 102 101 104 109 118 115 111 108 107 105 98 90 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.6 -57.7 -57.5 -57.1 -56.5 -56.0 -55.9 -56.4 -56.5 -57.0 -57.6 -58.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.3 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 700-500 MB RH 59 59 55 52 46 44 40 44 51 58 53 44 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 22 24 24 21 20 18 17 16 17 20 22 850 MB ENV VOR 71 86 101 109 98 112 90 78 48 28 31 36 0 200 MB DIV 73 80 46 25 -3 -38 -22 -30 25 30 56 6 7 700-850 TADV 5 7 10 17 6 -5 -6 -7 0 2 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 2254 2234 2220 2102 1987 1609 1342 1180 1102 1210 1450 1680 1472 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 12 14 15 10 8 5 8 13 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 3 5 7 11 8 8 7 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 8 CX,CY: 4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -5. -8. -10. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -3. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 23. 23. 23. 22. 24. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.6 45.3 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.53 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.34 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 180.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.74 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.7 28.4 to 141.4 0.38 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.9% 14.1% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 6.1% 2.7% 0.7% 0.3% 2.3% 1.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 8.0% 5.7% 3.4% 0.1% 0.8% 3.6% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/26/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 49 53 57 58 58 58 57 59 63 65 18HR AGO 35 34 39 44 48 52 53 53 53 52 54 58 60 12HR AGO 35 32 31 36 40 44 45 45 45 44 46 50 52 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 33 34 34 34 33 35 39 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT