* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 45 49 53 55 54 55 56 55 56 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 45 49 53 55 54 55 56 55 56 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 38 40 42 44 44 44 45 48 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 22 8 20 27 31 32 22 17 24 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 4 3 -1 3 0 3 1 -5 -2 -4 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 212 186 165 160 157 10 14 359 342 311 293 263 261 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.4 26.2 26.4 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.3 27.1 26.5 25.2 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 117 117 117 116 118 125 127 127 126 124 119 108 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 104 104 103 103 105 113 116 113 109 108 106 96 92 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.3 -57.6 -57.4 -57.3 -57.0 -56.6 -55.7 -55.9 -56.7 -57.1 -57.6 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 6 4 700-500 MB RH 59 60 57 51 47 41 37 38 47 59 61 55 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 19 24 25 21 18 16 15 15 13 14 17 850 MB ENV VOR 52 69 91 106 109 102 96 78 69 40 11 17 -19 200 MB DIV 52 85 82 40 9 -52 -39 -33 -3 39 24 51 3 700-850 TADV 8 6 6 7 15 -6 -7 -10 -6 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 2193 2192 2195 2107 2021 1748 1411 1174 1076 1154 1373 1656 1560 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 10 11 14 14 9 5 7 11 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 6 2 1 3 5 7 8 9 8 9 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 6. 7. 5. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 25. 24. 25. 26. 25. 26. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.9 45.7 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.63 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 156.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 28.4 to 141.4 0.43 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.39 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 12.6% 10.2% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.0% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 1.3% 1.2% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.3% 3.8% 2.4% 0.0% 0.4% 2.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/26/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 45 49 53 55 54 55 56 55 56 60 18HR AGO 30 29 34 41 45 49 51 50 51 52 51 52 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 33 37 41 43 42 43 44 43 44 48 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 28 30 29 30 31 30 31 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT