* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/26/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 50 55 57 57 57 56 54 55 55 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 50 55 57 57 57 56 54 55 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 42 46 47 49 49 47 45 44 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 17 20 19 11 29 28 32 33 25 14 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 6 2 -3 1 -2 3 -2 -7 -1 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 229 217 182 169 169 10 11 8 355 330 313 282 257 SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.6 27.1 27.7 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.6 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 119 119 117 121 127 133 133 129 127 122 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 105 106 104 109 115 121 118 111 113 110 97 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.3 -57.1 -57.3 -57.1 -56.4 -56.6 -56.0 -55.6 -56.0 -56.5 -57.2 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 5 700-500 MB RH 58 60 61 56 51 38 36 35 39 50 58 65 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 14 16 19 23 21 18 16 14 13 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 41 65 65 91 108 99 94 73 67 57 24 12 6 200 MB DIV 40 39 83 62 39 -19 -54 -44 -21 26 16 38 13 700-850 TADV 7 6 6 4 7 7 -6 -7 -6 -2 2 1 0 LAND (KM) 2021 2061 2102 2055 2013 1787 1487 1217 1016 979 1114 1379 1613 LAT (DEG N) 23.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 8 9 9 12 13 12 8 5 9 15 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 6 5 5 6 12 21 22 17 12 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 754 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -3. -9. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 8. 8. 4. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 20. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. 24. 25. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.0 46.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.45 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.1 28.4 to 141.4 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 15.8% 12.8% 8.5% 6.4% 10.7% 9.8% 10.5% Logistic: 1.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.1% 1.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.3% 4.7% 2.9% 2.2% 3.9% 3.6% 3.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/26/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 50 55 57 57 57 56 54 55 55 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 45 50 52 52 52 51 49 50 50 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 38 43 45 45 45 44 42 43 43 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 27 32 34 34 34 33 31 32 32 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT