* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/26/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 48 56 58 60 60 59 58 59 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 48 56 58 60 60 59 58 59 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 39 43 47 49 51 53 52 51 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 15 18 21 6 18 26 27 32 27 15 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 0 5 1 4 0 2 0 0 -5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 249 230 209 176 175 142 26 22 20 348 316 301 253 SST (C) 27.1 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.4 27.2 27.0 27.6 27.5 27.7 27.1 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 120 118 116 118 127 125 132 129 131 126 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 111 107 104 101 105 115 114 118 114 115 112 95 200 MB T (C) -56.9 -57.4 -57.6 -57.4 -57.4 -57.1 -56.8 -56.9 -56.0 -55.8 -56.0 -56.5 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 60 61 61 57 49 40 36 37 45 54 54 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 17 21 23 19 16 14 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 22 42 64 67 88 103 91 77 62 49 40 19 20 200 MB DIV 68 45 51 91 68 8 -53 -57 -40 1 22 33 34 700-850 TADV 6 8 9 8 8 14 -2 -7 -7 -7 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 1952 2014 2076 2084 2095 1948 1681 1396 1140 1008 1025 1217 1565 LAT (DEG N) 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 10 12 13 10 8 7 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 9 7 7 5 5 6 9 13 15 16 19 12 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 753 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. -1. -6. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 28. 30. 30. 29. 28. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.7 47.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 137.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 28.4 to 141.4 0.47 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.54 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 14.2% 11.3% 7.1% 5.2% 9.6% 10.2% 12.1% Logistic: 1.5% 4.1% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 6.2% 4.3% 2.5% 1.8% 3.5% 3.7% 4.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 7.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/26/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/26/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 48 56 58 60 60 59 58 59 60 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 44 52 54 56 56 55 54 55 56 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 37 45 47 49 49 48 47 48 49 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 34 36 38 38 37 36 37 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT