* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 51 55 57 57 55 54 53 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 51 55 57 57 55 54 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 28 31 37 39 41 43 43 43 42 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 14 15 18 20 12 29 27 30 32 28 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 -2 0 5 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 263 255 238 214 187 173 49 21 14 1 337 315 300 SST (C) 27.6 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.0 26.6 27.3 27.7 27.9 27.3 27.1 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 124 122 118 116 113 121 129 133 134 127 125 119 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 113 109 106 103 100 109 117 120 119 112 109 104 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.9 -57.5 -57.6 -57.4 -57.4 -56.8 -57.0 -56.4 -55.9 -56.5 -56.7 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 0.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 51 55 59 61 62 54 40 36 34 40 51 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 14 18 23 21 17 14 12 11 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 1 19 34 57 67 100 94 86 69 65 33 12 10 200 MB DIV 66 71 51 47 84 45 -44 -41 -41 -35 9 22 52 700-850 TADV 9 6 8 7 6 9 2 0 -5 -2 1 1 6 LAND (KM) 1888 1995 2073 2118 2167 2106 1854 1542 1255 1079 1090 1172 1358 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 10 9 9 9 13 13 11 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 8 9 7 3 4 7 10 27 29 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 743 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 8. 4. 1. -3. -5. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 26. 30. 32. 32. 30. 29. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.9 47.6 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.05 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.30 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 893.2 to -67.1 0.81 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 28.4 to 141.4 0.54 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.30 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 14.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 3.9% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 6.0% 4.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/25/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 34 39 51 55 57 57 55 54 53 55 18HR AGO 25 24 27 31 36 48 52 54 54 52 51 50 52 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 30 42 46 48 48 46 45 44 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 32 36 38 38 36 35 34 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT