* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/25/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 47 54 57 50 42 38 36 31 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 35 47 54 57 50 42 38 36 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 28 33 37 39 39 36 31 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 25 17 11 15 16 18 9 36 58 38 11 17 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 0 -2 4 -3 1 3 3 1 SHEAR DIR 248 273 263 245 228 201 249 298 347 1 8 219 245 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.7 26.6 25.2 24.5 24.5 24.1 23.4 24.0 20.6 18.6 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 127 122 121 109 105 103 99 95 101 88 83 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 119 116 112 112 100 96 92 88 84 91 82 79 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -56.0 -57.0 -57.4 -57.6 -57.9 -58.3 -58.5 -58.6 -57.9 -58.0 -58.4 -58.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 5 5 5 2 0 700-500 MB RH 49 52 57 59 60 57 49 43 43 44 41 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 13 14 22 22 21 18 16 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR -1 1 19 31 39 75 73 22 -29 -67 -137 -195 -133 200 MB DIV 23 71 68 49 49 81 -22 -50 -74 4 66 71 -15 700-850 TADV 9 9 6 10 9 2 1 0 2 5 20 10 23 LAND (KM) 1766 1832 1946 2080 2212 2329 1926 1581 1449 1296 990 505 806 LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.8 22.5 23.3 24.2 27.1 30.5 32.9 33.7 34.8 37.6 42.3 45.4 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 48.2 47.4 46.4 45.3 43.8 45.2 48.6 51.7 54.3 55.0 51.5 42.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 11 13 14 17 20 16 13 12 21 32 37 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 10 10 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 6 CX,CY: 1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -6. -14. -17. -19. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 9. 9. 9. 5. 2. -1. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -3. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 22. 29. 32. 25. 17. 13. 11. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.2 48.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 893.2 to -67.1 0.79 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.0 28.4 to 141.4 0.59 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.61 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 16.2% 13.1% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.8% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.3% 4.7% 3.0% 0.0% 0.1% 3.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 14.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/25/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 31 35 47 54 57 50 42 38 36 31 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 33 45 52 55 48 40 36 34 29 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 40 47 50 43 35 31 29 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 31 38 41 34 26 22 20 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT