* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 34 44 54 54 52 45 42 39 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 34 44 54 54 52 45 42 39 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 30 35 37 37 35 32 32 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 29 24 15 14 17 19 21 25 52 25 13 29 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 1 -1 4 2 2 -7 0 4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 253 253 260 239 230 190 188 282 338 339 267 217 258 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 26.9 26.7 26.3 25.5 24.5 24.4 24.4 23.6 25.0 19.3 11.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 133 123 121 117 111 104 103 103 96 110 85 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 112 110 107 101 95 93 92 85 100 81 72 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -56.0 -56.4 -57.3 -57.6 -57.4 -57.9 -57.6 -57.9 -57.6 -57.9 -58.5 -59.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 4 4 3 4 4 2 0 700-500 MB RH 51 49 50 54 55 56 50 46 47 50 48 36 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 12 11 13 20 24 21 20 16 14 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -8 -2 17 26 59 77 31 21 -16 -63 -143 -106 200 MB DIV -3 19 74 78 57 94 47 -25 -64 19 53 75 15 700-850 TADV 8 9 12 9 9 9 9 10 4 18 19 40 -31 LAND (KM) 1793 1888 1990 2063 2151 2251 1871 1584 1484 1277 928 457 642 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.9 22.9 23.8 24.8 27.4 30.6 32.6 32.9 33.8 37.2 42.6 46.5 LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.6 47.2 46.7 46.1 45.4 46.8 50.4 54.5 57.6 58.0 54.1 44.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 12 15 19 18 16 13 24 36 41 HEAT CONTENT 16 14 7 9 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -6. -12. -15. -18. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 11. 8. 7. 3. -1. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 9. 19. 29. 29. 27. 20. 17. 14. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 21.0 48.0 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.38 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.07 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 146.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.3 28.4 to 141.4 0.57 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.83 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 15.1% 12.3% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 2.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.9% 4.4% 2.7% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/25/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 34 44 54 54 52 45 42 39 33 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 32 42 52 52 50 43 40 37 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 38 48 48 46 39 36 33 27 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 29 39 39 37 30 27 24 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT