* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 41 52 56 60 53 52 47 39 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 41 52 56 60 53 52 47 39 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 24 24 27 32 35 38 39 38 37 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 29 20 13 11 17 20 13 39 36 18 22 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 4 3 -2 3 3 -6 -2 5 4 7 SHEAR DIR 250 256 260 257 241 233 211 220 316 334 303 260 302 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.3 26.6 26.2 24.9 24.1 24.1 23.9 24.5 12.7 14.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 128 120 117 107 103 102 99 105 74 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 120 123 118 110 107 99 95 93 88 95 72 74 200 MB T (C) -55.1 -55.5 -56.0 -56.3 -57.3 -57.9 -57.8 -58.1 -58.4 -58.7 -58.5 -59.3 -59.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 53 51 52 53 57 55 49 43 51 59 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 16 23 22 23 20 19 16 15 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -1 -9 0 13 33 68 65 11 -20 -71 -81 -118 200 MB DIV 14 0 21 58 76 53 87 -14 -58 -27 73 56 -63 700-850 TADV 5 8 9 11 9 12 7 9 0 20 26 61 146 LAND (KM) 1685 1758 1845 1964 2083 2283 2167 1710 1415 1185 822 312 836 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.3 23.2 25.3 28.4 32.0 34.0 35.4 38.6 43.9 46.8 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 48.1 47.7 47.0 46.3 44.9 44.6 47.2 51.9 55.7 56.7 52.8 41.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 10 11 11 14 18 23 20 16 22 36 45 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 10 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -10. -13. -16. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 5. 12. 12. 13. 9. 7. 4. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 16. 27. 32. 35. 28. 27. 22. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.0 48.5 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.08 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.6 893.2 to -67.1 0.77 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.8 28.4 to 141.4 0.60 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.67 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 15.2% 12.1% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 2.1% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.7% 4.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.1% 2.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/25/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 41 52 56 60 53 52 47 39 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 39 50 54 58 51 50 45 37 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 35 46 50 54 47 46 41 33 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 27 38 42 46 39 38 33 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT