* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952018 10/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 45 51 51 43 33 24 18 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 45 51 51 43 33 24 18 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 24 23 23 23 26 30 32 32 30 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 38 36 32 23 15 16 14 13 25 60 42 28 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 0 3 -2 4 5 3 -18 2 5 -1 SHEAR DIR 250 254 258 260 263 244 228 192 250 336 342 334 327 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.8 25.4 24.9 23.8 24.0 24.6 23.7 17.6 POT. INT. (KT) 131 134 132 134 131 123 111 108 99 99 103 99 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 121 122 125 123 114 102 100 90 87 89 88 75 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -56.0 -57.6 -57.6 -58.3 -58.4 -58.8 -58.8 -58.8 -59.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 52 52 55 54 55 47 44 52 52 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 10 10 11 13 19 20 18 13 10 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 16 12 0 -1 -5 9 47 59 2 -52 -105 -145 -125 200 MB DIV 54 10 -2 9 40 62 98 17 -43 -55 -19 8 -63 700-850 TADV 9 5 8 8 13 11 9 13 8 14 26 46 54 LAND (KM) 1589 1631 1717 1818 1954 2246 2382 1963 1531 1263 994 722 722 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.4 20.0 20.7 21.7 23.8 26.6 30.3 33.6 35.5 37.8 40.5 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 48.6 48.0 47.3 46.5 44.7 43.8 44.7 47.5 50.5 51.9 50.4 45.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 6 9 11 13 14 17 21 18 14 13 19 29 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 15 12 11 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 750 (MEAN=619) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -3. -11. -19. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 10. 7. 2. -3. -9. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 20. 26. 26. 18. 8. -1. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.1 48.9 ** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952018 INVEST 10/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.56 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 157.3 0.09 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.0 893.2 to -67.1 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.5 28.4 to 141.4 0.61 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.8% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 7.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.2% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952018 INVEST 10/24/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952018 INVEST 10/24/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 29 35 45 51 51 43 33 24 18 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 27 33 43 49 49 41 31 22 16 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 29 39 45 45 37 27 18 DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 22 32 38 38 30 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT